Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Power Rankings Are Inevitably Useless


All stats are based upon ESPN NBA, NFL, and NHL Power Rankings.

Last week, the Colts were the best team in the NFL. This week, the Saints are the best team in the NFL. Remember when the Giants were #1? The Vikings and Broncos sit at #3 and #4, yet the Ravens, who almost beat the Vikings and demolished the Broncos, are #10. In the beginning of the NBA season, the Denver sits 4th in the Power Rankings as an undefeated team, yet undefeated #10 Phoenix and #11 Miami sit behind 2-2 #9 Portland. Even the NHL can't get it right with the Blue Jackets at #24 with a record of 7-5-1 behind the Islanders at #20 despite a 4-4-5 record.

Why? Why use or even follow power rankings? In the end, they never really tell you where a team is. It's all on paper. How are the Patriots seated at #5 after derailing two 0-and-whatever teams, one of whom have a depleted secondary? During the season, they barely beat the Bills (and I mean, barely) and were shut down by the Jets and Broncos. If the Patriots were 4-3 (in that game against the Bills) instead of 5-2, would they be as low as the other 4-3 teams? And what about the Ravens? They just competed against #3 and #4 of the Power Rankings and ended up defeating #4 convincingly and coming a FG short of beating #3, so why are they at #10? Also, when was the last time a #1 team went all the way and won?

How can an undefeated team in the NBA thus far not be in the Top Ten of the Power Rankings? If the argument is that the undefeated teams have beaten up on weak teams, the Cavs haven't beat anyone of note for them to be at #7 (Minnesota and Charlotte) and were beaten by #1 Boston and #20 Detroit. Oh, but we base them on what they "potentially" are on paper. The Thunder are at #19 with a 2-1 record, yet there are teams with losing records that haven't looked as good as they are above them? If anyone caught the L.A./OKC game last night, it's obvious that the Thunder are a better team than they're being given credit for. Denver at #4? They're the second sharpest looking team in the NBA right now (next to Boston, who is rightfully at one).

Power rankings are absolutely useless. Regardless of how you try to rank teams, they'll never tell you how good or bad a team truly is because everything in sports is based on match-ups and how you play on that day. It's the reason why a #8 Golden State can topple the NBA's best record team Dallas Mavericks in 2007. It's why 18-0 can result in 18-1. It's how both #1 seeds in the NHL playoffs lose in either the opening or 2nd round of the Playoffs. It's why the BCS is such a mess (because, essentially, the BCS is just Power Rankings). If at the end of the day, we're judging teams based on what they win/accomplish at the end of the season, why do we bother with Power Rankings and worry about where a team is in term of this system?

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